
October 19th, 2026
China's economy grew 4.5% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier.
That was up from 4.3% in the April-June quarter, which was the slowest expansion in more than three years.
Robust exports drove the acceleration, and growth reached 4.6% in the first three quarters.
Beijing's target for the full year is 4.5% to 5%, down from last year's 5%.
Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for China's 2026 growth to 4.5%, the lower end of that goal.
Moody's Analytics economist Dave Chia said domestic demand was weak while trade grew strongly.
He said exports will likely stay strong, but global trade barriers remain a risk.
China's domestic demand has been weighed down by a yearslong downturn in its property market.
Max Zenglein of The Conference Board said the headline growth figure is becoming an increasingly poor indicator of the wider economy.
He said it masks widening disparities across industries, regions and households.
Mao Shengyong, deputy head of China's National Bureau of Statistics, warned of challenges ahead.
He said the international environment is complex and volatile, and domestic demand remains relatively weak.
He added that the foundation for stable improvement still needs consolidation.
China is on track to surpass last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus.
Exports rose 36% last month, and the surplus from January to September was already $938 billion.
High U.S. tariffs have pushed China to look to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Europe.
Semiconductors and cars, including hybrid and electric vehicles, are driving export growth.
The EU runs a trade deficit with China of more than $1.1 billion a day.
Chinese exports to the EU rose 16% in the first nine months of the year.
Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad said it is untenable for the world's second largest economy to rely on foreign demand to prop up its growth.
He said China has become a drag on world growth rather than an engine pulling it along.
Natixis economist Gary Ng said China can work with other countries on disputes and wants to keep its market access.
ING economist Lynn Song said trade imbalances will be difficult to resolve quickly.
Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said Friday that China does not seek a large trade surplus and is committed to expanding domestic demand.
October 19th, 2026

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