May 2nd, 2025
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China's economy grew by 5.4% in the first three months of the year, the government said. This growth was helped by strong exports before the US increased taxes on Chinese goods.
Because of the trade war, experts predict that China's economy will slow down a lot in the near future as high taxes on goods from China to the US start. China has also put high taxes on goods from the US, but says it still wants its markets to be open for trade and investment.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is visiting several Asian countries this week. He wants to support free trade and show that China can bring "stability and certainty" when things are difficult.
While Xi visited Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, the U.S. announced that a senior official, Sean O'Neill, would travel to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Tokyo this week.
China is also showing that it wants to trade with countries other than the United States at different trade fairs, where it shows off its big market and its strength as a country that makes many things.
Exports were good for China's economy, helping it grow by 5% last year, and the government aims for similar growth this year.
A spokesperson said that in the short term, the taxes would hurt China's economy, but they would not stop its growth over time. He also said that China now sells fewer goods to the US than it did five years ago.
China's economy is strong and able to handle difficulties, with good possibilities for growth.
From January to March, the economy grew by 1.2%. This was slower than the 1.6% growth in the last three months of 2024.
Chinese exports grew quickly by over 12% in March compared to the same month last year, and by almost 6% in U.S. dollars during the first three months of the year. This happened because companies wanted to avoid the taxes that President Trump was planning to put on goods. This also helped the manufacturing industry stay strong over the last few months.
A lot of this happened early on, driven by quick actions before the US increased tariffs and a large amount of goods were bought in the US as importers tried to prepare.
In the last three months, industrial production grew by 6.5% compared to the year before. This was mainly because making equipment went up by almost 11%.
The biggest growth was in new technologies, like making electric and hybrid cars. This increased by 45.4% compared to the year before. The production of 3D printers also went up by almost 45%, and the number of industrial robots grew by 26%.
Even though China's economy grew quite fast compared to other countries, it has had trouble getting back to its usual speed since the COVID-19 pandemic. This is because problems in the property market have led to more unemployment, which makes families hesitant to spend money.
Prices consumers pay went down by 0.1% in the first three months of the year, showing that in many areas, people are not buying as much as companies are making. Spending on property was also low, dropping by almost 10% compared to the previous year, even though the government tried to encourage people to borrow money to buy homes.
The problem with tariffs is a serious danger at a time when China is trying to get companies to invest and employ more people, and to encourage Chinese people to buy more.
Economists in both private and public companies are still careful about what might happen, because Trump keeps changing his mind about the details of his trade war.
In a report, Tao Wang and other economists from UBS said it is very hard to know how the U.S. and China will change their tariffs on each other because of what has happened in the last two weeks.
The International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank still expect the economy to grow by about 4.6% this year.
When Trump became president, he first increased taxes on goods from China by 10%. Later, he increased them to 20%. Now, China pays 145% taxes on most of the things it sells to the United States.
UBS thinks that if the taxes on goods stay about the same, China will sell two-thirds less to the US in the next few months. They also believe that the total amount China sells to other countries could go down by 10% in value. UBS lowered its guess for how much the economy will grow this year from 4% to 3.4%. They think growth will be slower, reaching 3% in 2026.
In the last seven months, China has tried harder to encourage people to spend more and businesses to invest more. They have offered more money for trading in old cars and appliances, and given more financial help for housing and other industries that need it.
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