Russia's Wartime Economy: The Long-Term Erosion of Debt and Military Spending
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September 18th, 2026
Russia's Wartime Economy: The Long-Term Erosion of Debt and Military Spending
C2
Please note: This article has been simplified for language learning purposes. Some context and nuance from the original text may have been modified or removed.
🇺🇸 English
The frictions besetting Russia's wartime economy are steadily intensifying, with its colossal military expenditure causing the budget deficit to swell inexorably.
俄羅斯戰時經濟所承受的摩擦正日益加劇，其龐大的軍事開支致使預算赤字持續膨脹。
Consumer and business confidence is becoming increasingly pessimistic.
消費者與企業的信心愈趨悲觀。
Economic growth has already decelerated.
經濟成長已然放緩。
Nevertheless, economists point out that none of these phenomena suffice to presage an imminent financial crisis or economic collapse.
然而，經濟學家指出，此等現象皆不足以預示金融危機或經濟崩潰即將臨至。
Owing to the surge in oil prices precipitated by the hostilities with Iran, these indispensable oil export revenues have been sustained, enabling the government, at least for the present, to raise the funds required to underwrite its invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth and a half year.
緣於伊朗戰事致使油價飆升，至關緊要之石油出口收益遂得以維繫，政府至少於當前尚能籌措資金，以支應其已歷時四年半之烏克蘭入侵行動。
At the same time, the low unemployment rate, coupled with the government's generous relief for impoverished regions, has helped to dissipate consumers' accumulated grievances.
於此同時，失業率之低迷，加之政府對貧困地區之慷慨賑濟，皆有助於消弭消費者之積怨。
On the eve of the parliamentary elections that Russia has meticulously orchestrated, opening on Friday and closing on Sunday, this spectacle dovetails precisely with the narrative of stability that the Kremlin is so eager to cultivate.
在俄羅斯精心擘劃、自週五揭幕至週日閉幕的議會選舉登場前夕，此番景象恰與克里姆林宮所亟欲營造的穩定敘事若合符節。
Yet economists caution that deep-seated structural maladies, long left unaddressed, are quietly eroding the foundations—and that, given time, they may well culminate in a crisis.
然而，經濟學家警示，積重難返的結構性痼疾正悄然侵蝕根基——假以時日，恐將釀成一場危機。
Since its peak between 2024 and 2025, the consumer confidence index has declined repeatedly; at that time, the expansion of military spending was driving economic growth and rising wages.
消費者信心指標自2024至2025年之巔峰以降，迭次遞衰；其時，軍費開支之擴張正驅策經濟成長與薪資攀升。
Recently, consumers have had to contend with soaring petrol prices and the shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries.
邇來，消費者不得不應對汽油價格騰貴，以及烏克蘭無人機襲擊煉油廠所肇致之短缺。
Many small businesses, too, have lost their inventories and customers as a result of attacks targeting the online retailers Wildberries and Ozon.
諸多小型企業亦因針對線上零售商Wildberries與Ozon之攻擊，而喪失其庫存與客戶。
Meanwhile, economic growth has bid farewell to the peak annual expansion of over 4% seen between 2023 and 2024, with momentum slowing markedly.
與此同時，經濟成長已然告別2023至2024年間逾4%的年增長高峰，動能顯著趨緩。
The government projects growth of merely 0.6% this year; the economy contracted in the first quarter and only began to recover in the second.
政府預估今年成長率僅0.6%，經濟於第一季度陷入萎縮，直至第二季度方見回升。
The consumer confidence index compiled by the Levada Center, an independent Russian polling organization, fell to 94 in the summer, down from 116 in the spring and summer of 2025.
由俄羅斯獨立民調機構列瓦達中心所編製之消費者信心指數，於夏季下探至94，較2025年春夏之116為低。
A reading below 100 indicates that negative sentiment regarding consumer confidence outweighs positive sentiment.
讀數若低於100，即表明消費者信心之負面情緒多於正面。
In Moscow, when it came to the election, what most respondents voiced was nothing other than pressing concerns of immediate personal relevance, such as pensions and prices.
於莫斯科，多數受訪者就選舉一事所表達者，不外乎養老金與物價等切身之憂。
Alexander Vertukhin, a seventy-two-year-old retired military prosecutor, stated that the government ought to give serious heed to the demand for "a decent standard of living for retirees."
七十二歲的退休軍事檢察官亞歷山大·維爾圖欣表示，政府理當正視「退休人員體面的生活水平」此一訴求。
As for his own circumstances, he candidly remarked, "I am doing quite well, whether financially or in any other respect."
至於他自身的處境，他坦言：「我過得相當不錯，無論是在財務抑或其他各個層面。」
"On the whole, I fervently hope that housing will become increasingly affordable, and I fervently hope that retirees will be able to enjoy a dignified life, rather than merely scraping by," said Dmitry Kirillin, twenty-six years old.
「總體而言，我殷盼住房益趨可負擔，我殷盼退休人員得以安享體面生活，而非僅止於勉強餬口，」二十六歲的德米特里·基里林如是說道。
"I also hope that traveling within our country can become more affordable.
「我亦盼在我國旅行能更為可負擔。
All of these are the priorities that first come to my mind; were I to ponder further, I daresay I could enumerate even more."
凡此種種，皆為我首先浮現於腦海之要務；倘若我再多加思忖，想來尚能列舉更多。」
He added: "Should the current circumstances permit, I would hope that the upward trajectory of prices might moderate."
他補充道：「倘若當前情勢允許，我期望物價漲勢得以趨緩。」
The gasoline supply predicament and the Wildberries strike have indeed given the world a more tangible appreciation of the war's impact, yet they do not amount to a crisis — such is the verdict of Chris Weaver, chief executive of Macro Advisory Ltd., a firm whose operations span the former Soviet region.
汽油供應之窘境與Wildberries罷工事件，誠然令世人對戰爭之衝擊獲致更為具象之體認，然尚不足以構成危機——此乃宏觀諮詢有限公司執行長克里斯·威弗之論斷；該公司業務遍及前蘇聯地區。
He characterized the economic situation as occupying a state of "tolerable stability," while public sentiment falls within the category of "grumbling," never escalating to the intensity of protest.
他將經濟態勢概括為處於「可容忍的穩定」之境，而公眾情緒則屬「抱怨」之範疇，未臻抗議之烈度。
"The economy is under strain—it has stalled at a level of stability without growth," Weaver said.
「經濟正承受著壓力——它已停滯於穩定卻不成長的水平，」威弗說道。
"Yet it is not facing recession, either."
「然而，它也並未面臨衰退。」
He asserted that the vast majority of people "have not been greatly affected" by the attacks in Ukraine.
他聲稱，絕大多數人「並沒有受到太大影響」於烏克蘭的攻擊。
"Merely because your shopping habits have been disrupted does not alter public support for the Kremlin."
「僅僅因為你的購物習慣被打亂，並不會改變公眾對克里姆林宮的支持。」
President Vladimir Putin's public approval rating has exhibited a downward trajectory over recent months, yet it nonetheless remains elevated above the level recorded prior to the outbreak of the war in 2022.
總統弗拉基米爾·普丁的民意支持度於近數月間呈現下滑態勢，惟其仍舊凌駕於2022年戰爭爆發前之水準。
For Russia, the budget deficit, together with the government's strenuous efforts to seek new sources of revenue, is a key indicator of imminent pressure.
預算赤字之於俄羅斯，連同政府竭力尋覓新財源之舉，乃壓力迫在眉睫的關鍵徵兆。
Putin therefore resorted to raising the value-added tax that consumers pay at the checkout counter, increasing a range of other fees, and imposing heavier taxes on small businesses.
普丁遂訴諸調高消費者在收銀台所付之增值稅、抬升一系列其他規費，並加重對小型企業之課徵。
Yet the deficit has continued to climb steadily.
然則赤字依舊節節攀升。
By the end of July, budget figures revealed that the deficit had reached 2.8% of annual economic output—nearly twice the originally planned annual budget target.
迄七月底止，預算數據揭示赤字已達年度經濟產出之2.8%——幾近原定年度預算目標之兩倍。
The disposable resources in Russia's Reserve Fund have already shrunk to 1.6% of GDP, which means the Kremlin will inevitably have to borrow from domestic banks.
俄羅斯儲備基金中可資動用之資源業已緊縮至GDP之1.6%，此意味著克里姆林宮勢須向國內銀行舉債。
However, this is tantamount to having to bear exceedingly onerous borrowing costs; according to Janis Kluge, an expert on Russian fiscal affairs at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, the interest rate on Russian bonds is as high as 17 percent.
然而，此舉無異於須承擔極為沉重的借貸成本；據德國國際與安全事務研究所俄羅斯財政事務專家亞尼斯·克魯格所述，俄羅斯債券之利率竟高達17%。
Budgetary pressures "have deepened doubts about how long Russia can sustain the war," he wrote in a recent report.
預算壓力「加深了對俄羅斯能維持戰爭多久的疑慮，」他在最近的一份報告中寫道。
The Russian central bank has kept interest rates elevated in order to curb the inflation unleashed by war spending, a move that has placed pressure on civilian enterprises unable to access the preferential credit channels enjoyed by defense firms.
俄羅斯央行持續維持高利率，以遏制戰爭開支所引發的通膨，此舉對那些無法取得國防企業所享有之優惠信貸渠道的民用企業構成了壓力。
Another source of war funding lies in the increased private lending that Russia's compliant banks extend to defense-related enterprises; this means that such debt will not be reflected in the deficit figures.
戰爭資金的另一來源，在於俄羅斯順從的銀行向國防相關企業增發私人貸款；此舉意味著這類債務將不會反映於赤字數據之中。
In the long run, Western sanctions have left Russia unable to secure the new investment required to raise its economic productivity.
以長遠觀之，西方制裁致使俄羅斯無從獲取足以提升經濟生產力之新投資。
And a multitude of risk factors—burgeoning expenditure, feeble growth, mounting debt, and persistently elevated borrowing costs—have prompted some economists to caution that, although the Russian economy has not yet collapsed, its structural foundations are being eroded at an alarming rate.
而諸般風險因素——開支浩繁、增長疲弱、債務攀升、借貸成本居高不下——促使部分經濟學家告誡：俄羅斯經濟雖尚未崩潰，其結構性根基卻正以堪憂之勢遭受侵蝕。
Torbjörn Becker of the Stockholm School of Economics asserts that the current trajectory is "unsustainable".
斯德哥爾摩經濟學院之托爾比約恩·貝克爾斷言，當前之軌跡乃「不可持續的」。
That said, "the timing of a crisis remains highly uncertain."
然則，「危機爆發之時機仍具高度不確定性。」
On the eve of the war with Iran, oil export revenues had shrunk to less than $10 billion a month; by June they had rebounded to $15.8 billion, and in July they stood at $13.8 billion.
石油出口收入於伊朗戰爭前夕曾萎縮至每月不足100億美元，及至六月已反彈至158億美元，七月則為138億美元。
Becker writes that Russia's budgetary constraints "may, in effect, evaporate for as long as energy prices remain persistently elevated."
貝克爾寫道，俄羅斯的預算限制「只要能源價格持續居高不下，就可能實際上消失」。
He argues that, in order to reverse this situation, the most urgent priority is to take more stringent measures against the fleet of oil tankers that Russia uses to circumvent sanctions.
他主張，欲扭轉此一局勢，首務之急切在於對俄羅斯用以規避制裁之油輪船隊採取更為嚴厲之舉措。
The injection of funds into defence factories and enlistment bonuses have proved nothing short of a godsend for Russia's provinces — regions whose poverty runs far deeper than that of Moscow and St Petersburg.
國防工廠的資金挹注與入伍獎金，對俄羅斯各省而言無異於一大福音——這些省份的貧困程度遠甚於莫斯科與聖彼得堡。
Given that factories are frequently operating at full capacity, the national unemployment rate stands at a mere 2.2%.
鑑於工廠往往處於滿負荷運轉狀態，全國失業率僅為2.2%。
According to a recent report published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Russia's defense industry, the Uralvagonzavod tank factory in Nizhny Tagil, in the Urals region, has expanded its workforce from roughly 20,000 to more than 38,000 since the invasion of Ukraine and has launched round-the-clock, uninterrupted production.
根據戰略與國際研究中心近期就俄羅斯國防工業所發布的一份報告，坐落於烏拉爾地區下塔吉爾的烏拉爾車輛廠坦克工廠，自入侵烏克蘭以來，已將其勞動力由約2萬人擴增至逾3.8萬人，並啟動了24小時不間斷生產。
As for Kupol, which manufactures drones and surface-to-air missiles, it is the largest industrial enterprise in the Udmurt region on the Volga, and its output more than doubled in 2025.
至於生產無人機與地對空飛彈的庫波爾，乃伏爾加河畔烏德穆爾特地區規模最大的工業企業，其產量於2025年翻了一倍有餘。
The scarcity of skilled labour is constraining the productive momentum of the defence industry and, indeed, of the economy as a whole, and this predicament has been rendered all the more acute by the fact that hundreds of thousands of people — predominantly those in the prime of youth — have fled abroad out of fear of conscription and political persecution.
熟練勞動力的匱乏正箝制國防產業乃至總體經濟之生產動能，復以數十萬人——其中多為青壯年——因憂懼徵兵與政治壓迫而遠走他鄉，致使此一困境益形嚴峻。
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, pointed out that the month-on-month deficit figures have exhibited considerable volatility, remarking, "This is not a figure that warrants concern. Macroeconomic stability is absolutely assured."
克里姆林宮發言人德米特里·佩斯科夫指出，逐月赤字數據呈現顯著波動，「此並非一項值得憂慮之數字。宏觀經濟穩定絕對獲得保障。」
Nevertheless, Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the Russian state development bank VEB.RF, cautioned in a speech that, owing to sanctions and economic isolation, "we are falling behind in the global technological and economic competition," and that "we cannot prevail in this war of attrition."
然而，俄羅斯國有國家開發銀行VEB.RF的首席經濟學家安德烈·克列帕奇於一次演講中告誡，緣於制裁與經濟孤立之故，「我們在世界技術和經濟競爭中正在落後」，且「我們無法在這場消耗戰中取勝」。
He was dismissed from his post.
他遭到了免職的處分。
Dasha Litvinova contributed reporting from Tallinn, the capital of Estonia.
達莎·利特維諾娃自愛沙尼亞首府塔林供稿。
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