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2026年的選舉可能會顯示,對預測市場的大筆押注如何改變選戰和結果。

2026年的選舉可能會顯示,對預測市場的大筆押注如何改變選戰和結果。

A2🇺🇸 English🇹🇼 中文

September 8th, 2026

2026年的選舉可能會顯示,對預測市場的大筆押注如何改變選戰和結果。

A2
Please note: This article has been simplified for language learning purposes. Some context and nuance from the original text may have been modified or removed.

🇹🇼 中文

美國選舉預測市場交易成長

Trading on prediction markets for U.S. elections is growing fast.

發生2026中期選舉之前

This is happening before the 2026 midterms.

同時有些想要禁止這些平台

At the same time, some states want to ban these platforms.

他們這些平台沒有執照賭博

They say the platforms are gambling without a license.

選務官員擔心

Election officials worry about this.

他們認為大量下注可能傷害公眾民主信任

They think heavy betting could hurt public trust in democracy.

賈里德·德馬里尼斯馬里蘭州選務主管

Jared DeMarinis is Maryland's election administrator.

一個令人擔憂趨勢」。

He called this "a troubling trend."

全國官員必須處理這件

He said officials across the country must deal with it.

PolymarketKalshi這樣平台人們買賣合約

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let people buy and sell contracts.

這些合約價格199美分之間

These contracts cost between 1 and 99 cents.

人們它們市長美國參議院選舉

People use them for races from mayor to U.S. Senate.

公司官員不是賭博

Company officials say this is not gambling.

他們買賣股票

They say it is like trading stocks.

人們保護自己避免選舉結果影響

People use it to protect against election results.

他們聯邦法律要求規則禁止內線交易

They also say federal law requires rules against insider trading.

他們指出研究顯示他們賠率接近真實結果

They point to research that shows their odds are close to real results.

但是這些市場今年問題

But the markets have had problems this year.

它們威斯康辛州州長初選支持輸掉候選人

They favored a losing candidate in Wisconsin's governor primary.

洛杉磯網紅使用市場賠率

In Los Angeles, influencers used market odds.

他們錯誤官員作弊

They falsely said officials were cheating.

法院現在決定各州能不能禁止這些市場

Courts are now deciding if states can ban these markets.

各州這些市場賭博

States say the markets are gambling.

但是法院決定可能不會選舉出來

But court rulings will probably not come before the election.

數十億美元可能這些問題交易

Billions of dollars may trade on questions.

一個問題哪個政黨控制國會

One question is which party will control Congress.

官員正在準備公共教育活動

Officials are preparing public education campaigns.

他們告訴人們市場賠率不是民調

They want to tell people that market odds are not polls.

它們票數

They are also not vote counts.

有些正在預測市場賭博加入工作人員宣誓

Some counties are adding prediction-market betting to worker oaths.

分析師發出警告

Analysts also give a warning.

有錢黨派支持者可以提高賠率改變選民想法

Rich partisans could raise odds to change voters' minds.

他們可以候選人

They could also help candidates get money.

平台官員想要交易者很快修正任何作弊

But platform officials say traders who want money fix any cheating quickly.

September 8th, 2026

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