Japanese economic activity experienced a contraction at an annualized rate of 0.7% in the first quarter, according to governmental figures released Friday, primarily due to the detrimental impact of then-President Trump's trade disputes on export volumes and a subsequent erosion of consumer confidence.

Según datos preliminares ajustados estacionalmente de la Oficina del Gabinete, el producto interno bruto real de Japón experimentó una contracción del 0,2% en el periodo enero-marzo, superando las previsiones y marcando la primera caída en un año para este indicador clave de la actividad económica nacional.

A pesar de una contracción en las exportaciones del 2,3% anual, el gasto del consumidor se mantuvo resiliente, compensado en parte por un incremento notable del 5,8% en la inversión de capital.

The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration is likely to adversely affect Japan's major exporters, particularly automobile manufacturers, impacting not only goods directly exported from Japan but also those originating from other nations, such as Mexico and Canada; policymakers acknowledge that formulating an effective response is proving challenging due to the perceived volatility and unpredictability of the administration's stance.

S&P Global Ratings señaló en un informe que los fabricantes de automóviles regionales se enfrentan a un aumento de los costes operativos y a posibles pérdidas de ingresos, dada la dependencia de sus ventas en EE. UU. de bases de producción y cadenas de suministro heterogéneas.

Even enterprises with negligible US sales could experience consequential, albeit indirect, repercussions as tariffs ripple through the global economy and dampen consumer demand.

The Japanese economy has been languishing for years, beset by flagging demand as its population ages and shrinks, a consequence of shifting demographics marked by increasing rates of singlehood and lower birth rates.

Having maintained near-zero or negative interest rates for an extended period, the Bank of Japan has incrementally raised its benchmark rate, citing sustained wage levels coupled with a gradual rise in inflation.

The latest findings, underscoring the economy's precariousness, strongly suggest the central bank will likely refrain from further rate hikes.

A contingent of analysts advocates for a reduction in the consumption tax – currently levied at 10% and analogous to sales taxes in comparable economies – as a measure to ameliorate financial pressures on individuals.

However, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has yet to signal his endorsement of the proposal, particularly given the immense strain on Japan's national finances stemming from the escalating costs associated with social welfare provisions.

Durante el último trimestre de 2024, la economía experimentó un crecimiento, alcanzando una tasa anual del 2,4%.