The United States has loosened Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks.

It has also nearly stopped Iran’s own oil exports, speeding up Iran’s economic decline.

But the war launched by the U.S. and Israel in February is far from over.

A June agreement quickly fell apart, and low-level fighting continues with no U.S. exit strategy.

The economic pressure on Iran has not caused an uprising.

Experts say Iran’s leaders may escalate militarily instead of giving in.

Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have increased attacks on Saudi Arabia.

This has helped push oil prices back up.

Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel this week, and diesel hit a record.

Iran closed the strait early in the war, but the balance has now reversed.

A U.S. blockade has almost halted Iran’s exports, while U.S. forces have helped Gulf countries export more.

Iran’s oil exports fell from 1.85 million barrels a day last spring to about 255,000 in August, according to oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi.

Non-Iranian exports rose from 300,000 barrels a day at the war’s height to 8.4 million in September.

The increased flow depends on a major U.S. deployment that has strained the military.

The war has cost U.S. taxpayers more than $37.5 billion and left 18 U.S. service members dead.

Analysts say Washington still lacks a path to victory.

Iran has kept attacking ships and shows no sign of backing down.

Experts warn it may escalate further rather than accept the blockade.