May 14th, 2025
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President Donald Trump commenced his four-day Mideast tour on Tuesday with a meeting with Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to discuss American initiatives aimed at dismantling Iran's nuclear ambitions, resolving the conflict in Gaza, stabilising oil prices, and other matters.
Upon disembarking from Air Force One to commence his Middle East tour, Prince Mohammed extended a cordial welcome to Trump.
Subsequently, the two leaders withdrew to a lavish hall at the Riyadh airport, where Trump and his retinue were presented with traditional Arabic coffee by attendants adorned with ceremonial gun-belts.
The elaborate ceremony commenced prior to Trump's arrival, with Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s offering a ceremonial escort to Air Force One as it neared the kingdom's capital.
A luncheon at the Royal Court was planned, featuring both Trump and Prince Mohammed, alongside numerous prominent business leaders such as Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.
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Saudi oil behemoth Aramco reported its first-quarter profits to be $26 billion, signifying a 4.6% decrease compared to the previous year.
Subsequently, the crown prince is scheduled to host a formal dinner for Trump, who is also expected to participate in a U.S.-Saudi investment conference on Tuesday.
"When Saudis and Americans collaborate, outcomes are consistently beneficial, frequently even exceptional," stated Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih.
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members have already bolstered their position with Trump early in his second term by increasing oil output, as Trump views inexpensive energy as crucial for reducing costs and controlling inflation for Americans, while also arguing that lower oil prices will accelerate the conclusion of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
However, Saudi Arabia's economy still relies a lot on oil, and they need the price of oil to be between $96 and $98 a barrel to balance their budget. It's not clear how long OPEC+, where Saudi Arabia is the main member, will want to keep producing a lot of oil.
Jon Alterman, a senior Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that lower oil prices are a challenge for the Gulf states. He explained that while these prices don't necessarily stop economic diversification plans, they definitely make them more difficult.
Trump selected the kingdom as his initial destination due to its commitment to undertaking substantial investments in the United States; however, he ultimately journeyed to Italy the previous month to attend Pope Francis' funeral. Riyadh represented the inaugural overseas visit of his first term.
The president's scheduled visit included Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, countries where the Trump Organization, managed by his two older sons, is actively involved in significant real estate developments, such as a skyscraper in Jeddah, a lavish hotel in Dubai, and a golf course and villa complex in Qatar.
Trump is trying to show that his way of dealing with international politics, which is based on trading things, is working well. This is happening while Democrats are criticizing him. They say his trade war and how he deals with Russia's war in Ukraine are making the United States separate from its friends.
He is expected to announce agreements with the three rich countries. These deals will involve artificial intelligence, increasing energy cooperation, and possibly new arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Earlier this month, the government gave initial approval to sell $3.5 billion worth of air-to-air missiles for Saudi Arabia’s fighter jets.
However, Trump's arrival in the Middle East occurred at a time when his principal regional partners, Israel and Saudi Arabia, were notably divergent from his strategic stance.
Prior to the journey, Trump declared a suspension of the approximately two-month U.S. airstrike operations targeting Yemen’s Houthis, citing assurances from the Iran-supported rebels that they would cease assaults on vessels navigating a crucial international trade channel.
The government did not tell Israel, who the Houthis still attack, about the agreement before Trump announced it publicly. This was another time Trump did not share information with the Israelis about his government's talks with groups they both oppose.
In March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was told about the talks with Hamas about the war in Gaza only after they had started. He also found out about the US talks with Iran about nuclear issues only when the president announced it during his visit to the Oval Office last month.
Netanyahu stated last week, in response to Trump's announcement of a truce with the Houthis, that Israel would defend itself independently, adding that if others, such as their American allies, joined them, it would be advantageous.
William Wechsler, the senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, described Trump’s decision to omit Israel from his initial Middle East tour as noteworthy.
Wechsler noted that, according to the current schedule, the core takeaway from this development is that the Gulf governments appear to be more steadfast allies of President Trump than the present Israeli government.
Meanwhile, Trump seeks to revive his prior administration's initiative aimed at normalising relations between the Middle East's principal powers, Israel and Saudi Arabia, following the Abraham Accords which resulted in Sudan, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco establishing diplomatic ties with Israel.
However, Riyadh has clearly stipulated that in return for normalization, it seeks U.S. security assurances, aid for its nuclear program, and significant progress towards Palestinian statehood. Given the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and Israeli threats to devastate and occupy Gaza, prospects for advancing Palestinian statehood appear minimal.
Significantly, Prince Mohammed recently welcomed Palestinian Vice President Hussein Sheikh in Jeddah, marking the sheikh's inaugural foreign trip since he took up his post in April.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the crown prince seemed to be hinting to Trump that Saudi Arabia needed to see real progress on creating a Palestinian state before they would seriously consider a peace deal with Israel.
Given how the Saudis usually show their plans, that's a way of saying, 'Don't even think about asking us to be friendly towards making things normal,' Abdul-Hussain said.
May 14th, 2025
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