The Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, did not agree with President Donald Trump's request to lower borrowing costs on Wednesday. They said there was a growing risk of both unemployment and inflation increasing at the same time. This unusual situation puts the central bank in a difficult position.

FRBは昨年末に3回連続で金利を引き下げた後、今回で3回目の会合で金利を4.3%に据え置きました。多くのエコノミストや投資家は、今年中にFRBが金利を引き下げると予想していますが、トランプ大統領の大きな関税がアメリカ経済と中央銀行の政策に大きな不確実性をもたらしています。

During the press conference after the policy statement, Chair Powell said that although these tariffs had made consumers and businesses feel less confident, they had not seriously hurt the economy. Powell also said that at this time, there was too much uncertainty about the tariffs for the Federal Reserve to decide what to do.

パウエル議長は、既に発表された大幅な関税が継続する場合、インフレの上昇、経済成長の減速、失業率の増加を招く恐れがあると言及し、その影響が一時的なのか、あるいはより長期に及ぶのかは、今後の状況によって変わると補足した。

The Federal Reserve rarely confronts the dual risk of increasing inflation and rising unemployment simultaneously. Ordinarily, inflation emerges when consumers spend freely and businesses, struggling to meet the resulting demand, raise prices. Conversely, an ascent in unemployment signals a weakening economy, which typically curtails spending and mitigates inflationary pressures.

高い失業率と速いインフレが同時に起こることは「スタグフレーション」と呼ばれます。これは1970年代の石油危機や不況の時に長く続きました。スタグフレーションは、中央銀行が失業率とインフレの両方の問題を同時に解決するのが難しいため、中央銀行の人たちにとって大きな心配事です。

しかし、多くのエコノミストは、トランプ大統領の広範な関税がスタグフレーションのリスクを高めていると指摘しています。彼らは、これらの輸入税が輸入品の価格を上げることでインフレを引き起こす可能性があると同時に、企業のコストが増えるにつれて雇用が減る可能性もあると考えています。

The Federal Reserve has two main goals: keeping prices stable and having as many people employed as possible. When inflation goes up, they usually raise interest rates to make borrowing and spending slower, which helps lower inflation. On the other hand, if unemployment increases, they lower interest rates to encourage spending and economic growth.

At the beginning of the year, analysts and investors anticipated that the Federal Reserve would decrease key interest rates by two to three times over the course of the year, given the gradual easing of post-pandemic inflation. Some economists argue for preemptive rate cuts, citing concerns about slower growth due to tariffs and a worsening unemployment rate. However, Chair Powell has indicated that the Fed will maintain a cautious, wait-and-see approach, as the economy currently appears robust.

数か月前、多くのアナリストは、インフレが最終的に目標の2%に戻り、失業率が低いまま健全な成長が続くと予想していました。これは「ソフトランディング」と呼ばれています。

However, on Wednesday, Powell conveyed that such a trajectory would be arduous to realise.

Powell stated, "Should the tariffs be ultimately implemented at their current levels, further progress towards our objectives is unlikely. At minimum, over the next year, the trajectory of these tariffs will determine whether we see any advancement towards our goals."

Furthermore, Powell articulated that the Federal Reserve's subsequent action would be contingent upon whether inflation or unemployment experienced a more substantial deterioration.

He stated that depending on the evolving circumstances, the situation could potentially lead to either a reduction in interest rates or their maintenance at the current level, adding that they needed to closely monitor developments before making a decision.

Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, anticipates that the Federal Reserve's current assessment will postpone the timing of interest rate reductions. He stated, "Given the two-sided risk assessment and the view that the economy remains robust, we cannot anticipate a June rate cut at this juncture." Many economists now believe that the interest rate reduction may be deferred until September.

トランプ大統領は4月に約60カ国に対し広範な関税措置を発表したが、中国に対するものを除き、大半を90日間猶予した。中国製品には145%の関税が課されたままだ。両国は、トランプ大統領が貿易摩擦を激化させて以来初めて、今週末にスイスで高官級協議を行う見通しだ。

The central bank's cautious stance is likely to intensify the existing friction between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration.

When questioned at a press conference whether President Trump's call for lower interest rates would influence the Federal Reserve, Powell stated that such demands would "absolutely not affect our work," explaining that they "solely consider economic data, outlooks, and the balance of risks at all times."

Should the Federal Reserve lower interest rates, a potential outcome is a decrease in borrowing costs for various instruments like mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, though this is not an absolute certainty.

A big challenge for the Federal Reserve (FRB) is how tariffs affect inflation. Most experts and FRB people think import tariffs will make prices go up, but they don't know how much or for how long.

At present, the American economy generally remains robust, with inflation having significantly decelerated from its 2022 apex. Consumer spending maintains a healthy velocity, potentially bolstered in part by pre-tariff announcements spurring purchases of goods such as vehicles. Businesses are consistently augmenting their workforces, contributing to a persistently low unemployment rate.

However, there are indications that inflation is expected to worsen in the coming months, with manufacturing and service sector surveys reporting increased prices from suppliers, and a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey indicating that approximately 55% of manufacturing firms anticipate passing on the impact of tariff increases to consumers.