As President Donald Trump discusses his approaches to trade negotiations with America's partners, the tariff situation grows increasingly complex. His team appears to leverage this ambiguity, suggesting Trump deliberately employs "strategic uncertainty" as a negotiating tactic.

トランプ氏は、米国はいかなる協定にも署名する義務を負わず、実際には即座に25件の協定に署名できると主張している。彼はあらゆる面で公正な取引を追求し、他国の市場には頓着しないと述べた。さらに、自身のチームが協定の条件について交渉の席に着くことは可能である一方、彼自身が一方的に一連の関税を課す可能性も示唆した。

"I am struggling to make sense of this," wrote Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in an email.

トランプのチームは、彼のベストセラー本『取引の技術』を、彼にしっかりした計画がある証拠だと言っています。しかし、世界はとても不安定な状態です。その結果、株の市場は落ち着かず、会社は新しい人を雇うのをやめたり、他にも色々な不安なことが起きています。それでも、トランプ氏は新しい工場と仕事がもうすぐできると約束し続けています。

As part of the proposed agreement, Trump intends to keep certain tariffs in place, asserting that import taxes generate significant revenue that would benefit the heavily indebted federal government; however, other nations view the complete elimination of tariffs as the primary objective of such accords.

Trump recently asserted, "Tariffs are excellent for us. If we can effectively leverage them, we will become incredibly prosperous. We'll be able to settle our debts and drastically reduce taxes. This is because the influx of funds will be so substantial that we can lower taxes even beyond the tax breaks you receive."

This year, the US government generated $45.9 billion in tariff revenue, approximately $14.5 billion more than last year, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. Given that Chinese products face a steep 145% tariff, and goods from Mexico and Canada, along with imported steel, aluminum, and automobiles, are subject to rates up to 25%, these revenues could escalate rapidly.

Achieving Trump's goals of paying off $360 trillion in debt and lowering income taxes would mean getting at least $2 trillion each year from tariffs without the economy falling apart. This is very difficult to do based on numbers.

The Republican administration says that 17 of the 18 main countries they trade with have shown term sheets with details of what they are willing to give up. Both sides agreeing on these terms is just the beginning of the trade talks.

Foreign leaders, however, have expressed uncertainty about Trump's precise demands and how to formalize any deal into a lasting agreement, mindful of his past actions such as approving the USMCA in 2020 and then imposing fresh tariffs on the same two nations this year.

カナダのマーク・カーニー首相は火曜日にトランプ大統領と会談し、カナダが一方的だと考える今年トランプ大統領が課したフェンタニル関連の関税が再び課されないように、次の協定を強化する必要があると述べました。

キャーニーは「いくつかの点は変更を余儀なくされるだろう」と述べた。

The 145% tariff on China, and Beijing's retaliatory 125% tariff on the US in response, have cast a shadow over the entire negotiation process, with Treasury Secretary Scott Besant admitting these tariffs are "unsustainable."

The initial negotiations between the United States and China are slated to commence this weekend in Switzerland, though they are likely to be confined to exploring avenues for de-escalating tensions to ensure meaningful discussions can take place.

重要な点は、中国が世界で一番の製造国であり、国内の産業よりも輸出を優先していることです。中国は国内で消費するよりも生産に力を入れているため、国内での需要が足りず、世界が中国の製品を買っています。アメリカは貿易のバランスを取り直したいと考えていますが、そのために、中国に対抗できる可能性のある国々に対しても、自国の自動車や技術産業を守るために関税をかけています。

Evidently, China constitutes the most substantial component in this trade puzzle, as Besant commented this week, posing the question: "What kind of relationship will we ultimately cultivate with China?"

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Lin Jian, hinted at the potential removal of rhetorical posturing and punitive tariffs as a significant step for the Trump administration to resume negotiations.

リンは火曜日に、「米国が対話と交渉を通じて問題を解決することを真に望むのであれば、脅迫や圧力を控え、平等、相互尊重、そして共通の利益を基盤とした対話に中国と臨むべきだ」と述べた。

水曜日、トランプ大統領は、中国との交渉の条件として関税を下げるかどうか聞かれたとき、「いいえ」とはっきり答えました。

Furthermore, Trump denied the Chinese government's claim that they wished for negotiations in Geneva, stating, "Well, they should re-examine their records."

どのような合意が議会の承認を必要とするのでしょうか？

それは必ずしも妥当であるとは言えません。

Several lawsuits have been filed against the Trump administration because they used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to put universal tariffs in place without getting approval from Congress. However, the administration argues that they don't need Congress's approval to change tariff rates.

以前、議会調査局が今年4月に更新した報告書によると、トランプ大統領は最初の任期中に中国との貿易協定「フェーズ・ワン」など、「特定の二国間の貿易や関税の問題に焦点を当てた、より限定的な合意」しか交渉できませんでした。他の限定的な例としては、2023年の重要鉱物に関する合意や、2020年の日本とのデジタル貿易に関する合意があります。

The issue is that Trump has proposed negotiating non-tariff barriers as well, such as safety standards for automobiles and value-added taxes imposed in Europe. While the US hopes other countries will reduce or eliminate the newly imposed tariffs if they alter their non-tariff policies, other nations may raise objections to the subsidies provided by the US government to its own companies.

According to a Congressional Research Service report, an agreement that deals with non-tariff barriers or needs changes to U.S. law would likely need approval from both the House and the Senate.

もしトランプ氏が一方的に関税を課すなら、それを本当に「取引」と呼べるのだろうか？

もし他の国がトランプ大統領を満足させられない場合、彼は国内での合意を進め、関税を設定する考えを示しています。これは、彼が4月2日に「解放記念日」の関税で行ったことと同じようなやり方です。これらの輸入関税の発表は、その後金融市場での売りを引き起こしました。その結果、交渉が進む間、新しい関税の一部を90日間停止し、基本的な10%の低い税率を適用することになりました。

Trump appears willing to forgo the initially threatened tariffs if he believes other nations have made adequate concessions, essentially making no concessions himself since the tariffs are a recent imposition. However, there remains a possibility that Trump might withdraw the tariffs even without receiving equivalent concessions in return.

William Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated that while Trump is known for making excessive demands, he often retreats as negotiations advance, and it remains to be seen how firmly he will adhere to his stance. However, Reinsch noted that thus far, it is evident that nations seeking "normal" trade negotiations involving significant concessions from both sides are being sidelined.