Millions of people partook in the plebiscite during the Philippine midterm elections on Monday, amongst whom was the incarcerated former president Rodrigo Duterte, who was contending for one of some 18,000 national and local mandates. Concurrently, local media outlets depicted President Marcos Jr. completing his ballot and casting his vote in Batac City, Ilocos Norte.

A photograph disseminated by the Presidential Communications Office depicts the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., positioned centrally, exhibiting the indelible ink marking his finger following the submission of his ballot at a polling facility in Batac City, within the province of Ilocos Norte, Philippines, on Monday, May 12, 2025.

A constituent is observed discharging their civic duty by casting a vote at an electoral precinct located within Quezon City, Philippines, on the calendrical marker of Monday, May 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Basilio Sepe)

The enfranchised populace converged upon a designated electoral precinct in Quezon City, Philippines, on Monday, May 12, 2025, to exercise their suffrage, an event documented herein by Basilio Sepe for the Associated Press.

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte gesticulates whilst addressing the media during a press colloquium following the casting of her ballot at a polling station in Davao City, southern Philippines, on Monday, May 12, 2025.

Depicted herein is a photograph disseminated by Team Pacquiao, capturing the esteemed Filipino pugilist and erstwhile senator, Manny Pacquiao, displaying the indelible ink marking his digit subsequent to exercising his suffrage at the Kiamba Central Elementary School within Kiamba, Sarangani province, situated in the southern reaches of the Philippines, on the calendrical date of Monday, May 12th, 2025, (Wendell Alinea/Team Pacquiao via AP).

Penned by Teresa Cerojano

Notwithstanding his detainment in The Hague, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte featured among those contending for a tranche of approximately 18,000 national and local mandates in Monday's midterm elections, an electoral exercise widely posited by analysts as pivotal in determining the enduring locus of political power for both him and his dynastic lineage.

Since his apprehension by the International Criminal Court in March, pending adjudication on charges of crimes against humanity stemming from a savage anti-narcotics campaign that claimed the lives of myriad alleged offenders during his 2016-2022 presidential tenure, Duterte has nonetheless persisted in pursuing the mayoral office in his southern Davao City bastion.

Pursuant to Philippine jurisprudence, individuals embroiled in criminal proceedings, including those currently under custodial arrest, are not ipso facto disqualified from seeking public office, unless and until a final judgment of conviction has been rendered and all avenues of appeal have been utterly exhausted.

Speculation abounds regarding Duterte's purported impending victory in the Davao mayoral election, an office he occupied for more than two decades prior to his ascent to the presidency; the pragmatic feasibility of his executing mayoral duties whilst incarcerated, however, remains a matter of considerable conjecture.

Monday's balloting saw more than 68 million registered Filipino electors poised to participate in the election of half of the 24 senatorial posts, the entirety of the 317 constituencies in the House of Representatives, and a plethora of provincial, municipal, and civic offices.

Polling stations ceased operations at the stroke of 7 p.m. local time, although regulations permitted those queuing at that hour in certain precincts to exercise their franchise; electoral officials projected that a provisional tally could materialise within hours, with the definitive outcome slated for formal declaration within the subsequent week.

The focal point rests upon the senatorial contest, potentially instrumental in shaping the political trajectory of Vice President Sara Duterte, daughter of former President Duterte, who is confronted with an impending impeachment trial before the Senate in July, stemming from allegations of complicity in a conspiracy to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and malfeasance concerning her office's intelligence appropriations; assertions she has vehemently refuted, attributing their dissemination to political adversaries seeking her ruination.

Sara Duterte is widely regarded as a formidable aspirant in the forthcoming 2028 presidential contest; however, a senatorial conviction would precipitate her removal from the vice presidency and proscribe her from ever again holding public office, necessitating the affirmative vote of at least nine of the twenty-four senators for an acquittal.

Maria Ela Atienza, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines, posited that the forthcoming 2025 midterm elections hold pivotal significance, as their outcome will invariably establish the trajectory for subsequent developments, particularly concerning which dynastic lineage or political faction is poised to exert dominance in the 2028 electoral contest.

A conviction of Sara Duterte in the impeachment trial, she posited, could portend the demise of the Duterte family's preeminence in national politics, with other scions vying for various posts: Rodrigo Duterte's youngest son, Sebastian, the reigning mayor of Davao and likely victor in the vice-mayoral contest; his eldest son Paolo, seeking another term in the House of Representatives; and two grandsons competing in municipal contests.

The impeachment and subsequent arraignment of Rodrigo Duterte at the International Criminal Court in The Hague transpired in the aftermath of the fundamental schism that developed between Marcos and Sara Duterte, precipitated by irreconcilable political divergences and conflicting aspirations for ascendancy.

Earlier on Monday, Sara Duterte exercised her franchise in Davao whilst Marcos père cast his ballot in his ancestral northern redoubt, Batac City.

Following the casting of her ballot, she informed journalists that she would defer to the electorate's determination should her endorsed candidates fail to prevail.

Regarding her father’s anticipated victory, she remarked, “Unequivocally, he will not be present; our prognostication is that the vice mayor (Sebastian) will assume the role of acting mayor.”

On the cusp of the election, Marcos, in a video address, had implored Filipinos to cast their ballots and ensure their collective voice resonated with unassailable clarity.

Notwithstanding his detention on charges of sexual abuse and human trafficking, and facing similar indictments in the United States, televangelist Apollo Quiboloy, a figure of considerable spiritual counsel to her father and a significant political confederate, is nonetheless contesting a senatorial position.

The electoral proceedings have been vitiated by isolated outbreaks of violence; notably, in Silay City, located in the central Philippines, law enforcement officials documented a fatal shooting incident resulting in two fatalities and seven casualties, whilst in the southern municipality of New Corella, a firefight between adherents of opposing mayoral candidates precipitated two deaths and two injuries. Further exacerbating the situation, southern Basilan witnessed seven fatalities in what are suspected to be election-related shootings, with numerous other individuals sustaining injuries in similar incidents across diverse regions of the archipelago.

In several constituencies, the balloting was further impeded by internecine skirmishes between adherents of competing candidates; concurrently, in Manila, some electors voiced their discontent over the omission of their names from the electoral roll at their respective precincts, whilst others bemoaned the protracted queues endured under oppressive thermal conditions.

According to Reymark Marquez, a constituent, the Marcos-Duterte administration, which swept the 2022 election, has not, in his estimation, fulfilled its pledges; he posits that the forthcoming midterm polls transcend the binary of Duterte versus Marcos, instead representing a critical juncture for the discernment and selection of judicious leadership.

“The very future of the forthcoming generation, it seems to me, hangs in the balance in this election,” posited Diana Joy Acosta, a 32-year-old recent mother, having just exercised her franchise at a school in metropolitan Manila’s Mandaluyong City.

For her progeny's prospects, she ardently desires the extirpation of corruption and the investiture of statesmen of unimpeachable probity.