The new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, has changed his communication style a lot, saying much less about the economy and inflation than his predecessor.
新任美联储主席凯文·沃什在沟通方式上大幅改变,对经济和通胀的表态比前任少得多。
Many economists and Wall Street investors are not happy about this.
许多经济学家和华尔街投资者对此并不满意。
On Friday, he will give a speech at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium.
周五,他将在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表演讲。
This is a high-risk chance to answer concerns and stress his credibility in fighting inflation.
这是回应担忧、强调抗通胀可信度的高风险机会。
Economists want Walsh to clearly explain how the Fed should deal with stubbornly high inflation.
经济学家希望沃什明确说明美联储应如何应对顽固高企的通胀。
At a recent press conference, he avoided questions about whether to raise interest rates while inflation stays high, causing confusion.
在最近一次新闻发布会上,他回避了关于通胀持续高位时是否加息的问题,引发混乱。
Walsh said he is unwilling to provide "forward guidance," believing it would limit the Fed's flexibility.
沃什表示,他不愿提供“前瞻性指引”,认为这会限制美联储灵活性。
But some economists think he could explain his policy ideas more without revealing future actions.
但一些经济学家认为,他可以在不透露未来行动的情况下,更多阐述政策理念。
David Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Walsh needs to explain the ideas that guide monetary policy.
彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员大卫·威尔科克斯说,沃什需要阐明指导货币政策的理念框架。
But he has refused to offer even a small explanation.
但他甚至拒绝提供一点说明。
Last month, Walsh said he wanted his speech to focus on "major issues." These include artificial intelligence, productivity, and how the global economy would react to a war with Iran.
沃什上月曾表示,希望演讲聚焦“重大问题”,如人工智能、生产率和全球经济对伊朗战争冲击的反应。
Inflation has cooled after rising sharply in May and June, but it is still above the central bank's 2% target.
通胀虽在5月和6月飙升后有所降温,但仍高于央行2%的目标。
Surveys show that most Americans still see the affordability of basic goods as the top economic issue before the midterm elections.
调查显示,大多数美国人仍将必需品可负担性视为中期选举前的首要经济问题。
When Warsh spoke at a press conference on July 29, interest rates rose, pushing up mortgage costs.
沃什在7月29日新闻发布会上讲话时,利率上升,推高抵押贷款成本。
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of strategy at TD Securities, said Warsh lost the market during his speech.
道明证券策略主管根纳迪·戈德堡表示,沃什在讲话时失去了市场。
He talked about lowering inflation but did not really give a way to achieve it.
他谈降低通胀,但未真正给出实现方法。
Warsh did say that any central bank chief would prefer to raise rates when underlying inflation rises. But he did not say whether he thinks underlying inflation is getting worse.
沃什确实表示,任何央行行长更倾向于在潜在通胀上升时加息,但未说明他是否认为潜在通胀在恶化。
He also said rate hikes "could be part of the solution," but added they are "not isolated." He might consider other measures like reducing the Treasury bonds the Fed holds.
他还说加息“可能成为解决方案的一部分”,但补充说“不是孤立的”,可能考虑其他措施如减少美联储持有的国债。
President Trump kept calling for lower interest rates and criticized other Fed officials for supporting higher rates.
特朗普总统继续呼吁降低利率,并批评其他美联储官员支持更高利率。
He also tried again to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook. Replacing her would let Trump appoint most of the seven-member board.
他还再次努力罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克,替换她将使特朗普能任命七人理事会中的多数。
KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said politics is worsening the Fed's trust crisis. Warsh's speech was a chance to show independence from political pressure.
毕马威首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克说,政治正在加剧美联储的信任危机,沃什的演讲是展示独立于政治干预的机会。
Economists said clearer leadership is not hard. It just means stating how the Fed might act if inflation stays high.
经济学家表示,更清晰说明领导方式并不难,只需明确通胀持续高位时美联储可能如何应对。
Wilcox said the problem is he said nothing. People are getting uneasy because he won't say simple things.
威尔科克斯说,问题是他什么也没说,人们开始因他不会说简单的话而不安。
If Warsh eases worries, long-term rates might fall a bit. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high last week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has moved to buy back bonds.
如果沃什缓解担忧,长期利率可能略降,30年期国债收益率上周达19年最高,财政部长斯科特·贝森特已采取回购债券行动。
Consulting firm economist Derek Tang said it's a win as long as yields don't rise.
咨询公司经济学家德里克·唐说,只要收益率不上升就是胜利。