May 9th, 2025
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The main bank in the US did not change its interest rate on Wednesday. President Trump wanted them to make it lower, but they didn't. They said it is now more likely that more people will lose their jobs and prices will go up. This is a strange situation and makes it hard for the bank.
The central bank did not change the interest rate. Many people think they will lower the rate later this year. But new taxes on goods from other countries make the future of the economy and the bank's plans hard to know.
Jerome Powell talked to reporters. He said that the taxes on goods from other countries have made people and businesses feel less happy. He also said these taxes have not hurt the economy much yet. Powell added that because things are not clear now, the Fed does not know how to answer the taxes.
Powell said that if the big taxes on goods stay high, prices will probably go up. This could also make the economy grow slower and cause more people to lose their jobs. He added that these changes might only last a short time, or they could last longer.
Usually, when prices go up, people are spending a lot and companies can't make enough things. But when more people lose their jobs, people spend less money, and prices often stop going up. It's strange for the Fed to have both problems at the same time.
When many people lose their jobs and prices go up a lot, it's sometimes called "stagflation." This makes the people who control the country's money very worried because it's hard for them to fix both problems at once. This happened for a long time in the 1970s when oil was expensive and the economy was bad.
But most economists think Trump's import taxes could make things cost more and maybe cause people to lose their jobs.
The main jobs of the US central bank are to keep prices steady and help people find jobs. Usually, when prices go up quickly, the bank makes borrowing money more expensive. This is to slow down spending and stop prices from rising so fast. But if many people lose their jobs, the bank would make borrowing cheaper. This is to encourage more spending and help the economy grow.
Earlier this year, people who study money thought the Fed would lower interest rates a few times because prices were not going up as fast. Some also said the Fed should cut rates because they expected the economy to slow down and more people to lose jobs. But the head of the Fed said no, because the economy is doing well right now, so they don't need to do anything yet.
A few months ago, many experts thought the economy would get better without big problems. They thought prices would stop going up so fast and go back to the normal level of 2%. They also thought many people would keep their jobs and the economy would grow well.
But on Wednesday, Powell said it probably won't happen.
If the taxes are put in place at those levels, then we will not make more progress toward our goals.
Powell also said the Fed's next decision will depend on if prices go up a lot or if more people become unemployed.
He said interest rates might go down or stay the same. We need to wait and see what happens before we decide.
Krishna Guha, an expert, believes the Fed will likely wait longer to decrease interest rates. He explained that the Fed sees the economy as strong and has concerns, so they are not planning to lower rates in June at this time. Many experts believe the Fed might not be ready to decrease rates until September.
In April, Trump said the US would put more taxes on many things from about 60 countries. But he stopped most of these new taxes for three months, except for things from China. The US has put a 145% tax on things from China. This weekend in Switzerland, the US and China will talk for the first time at a high level since Trump started this trade disagreement.
The main bank is being careful. This might cause more problems between the bank and President Trump. Trump wants the bank to lower interest rates. He said he might fire the person in charge, Mr. Powell, if the economy is not good.
At the press conference, someone asked if Trump's requests for lower rates changed the Fed's work. Powell said, "It doesn't change how we do our job. We only look at economic information, what we think will happen, and possible problems. That's all."
If the Fed lowers interest rates, it could make it cheaper to borrow money for things like buying a house or a car, or using a credit card. But we are not sure this will happen.
A big problem for the Fed is how taxes on imports will change prices.
Right now, the economy in the U.S. is doing well. Prices are not going up as quickly as they did in 2022. People are buying many things, maybe because they want to buy cars before new taxes make them cost more. Companies are still hiring people, so not many people are without jobs.
But it looks like prices will go up more in the next few months. Businesses that make things and offer help say they are paying more for what they buy. And a study found that about half of businesses that make things think they will ask their customers for more money because of higher taxes.
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