May 9th, 2025
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The US central bank did not change its main interest rate on Wednesday. President Donald Trump wanted them to make it lower, but they did not listen. They said that it is now more likely that both more people will lose their jobs and prices will go up. This is strange and makes it hard for the central bank to know what to do.
The central bank did not change interest rates for the third meeting in a row. Before this, they lowered rates three times at the end of last year. Many experts still think the central bank will lower rates this year. But new taxes on goods from other countries have made the future of the U.S. economy and the central bank's plans very unclear.
After the plan was shared, the leader Jerome Powell had a meeting. He said the new taxes made people and businesses feel less positive. But he also said the taxes haven't really hurt the economy yet. Powell said that right now, it's hard to know what the Fed should do about the taxes because things are not clear.
Powell said that if the big taxes on imports continue, prices could go up, the economy could grow slower, and more people could lose their jobs. He also said these effects might not last long, or they could continue for some time.
It's not common for the Fed to have problems with both prices going up and more people losing jobs at the same time. Usually, prices go up when people buy a lot, and companies can't make enough, so they ask for more money, like after the pandemic. When more people don't have jobs, the economy is not strong, so people usually spend less money. This helps stop prices from going up so fast.
When many people lose their jobs and prices go up a lot, it's called 'stagflation'. This makes central bankers worried because it's difficult to solve both problems at the same time. This happened for a long time in the 1970s.
However, most economists think that Trump's new taxes on things brought into the country could make prices higher and cause people to lose their jobs.
The main jobs of the Fed are to keep prices steady and help people find jobs. When prices go up, the Fed usually increases interest rates. This makes it harder to borrow money, so people spend less, and prices stop rising so fast. But if people lose their jobs, the Fed might lower interest rates to help people spend more and help the economy grow.
At the start of the year, experts thought the Fed would lower interest rates a few times because prices were not rising so quickly after the pandemic. Some people also think the Fed should lower rates because they expect the economy to grow more slowly and more people to lose their jobs because of tariffs. But Powell said that the Fed does not need to do anything for now because the economy is doing well.
A few months ago, many experts thought the economy would get better slowly. They believed that prices would stop going up so fast and go back to the goal of 2%. They also thought that many people would still have jobs and the economy would keep growing well.
But on Wednesday, Powell said that would probably not happen.
Powell said they will not make more progress toward their goals for about a year if the taxes are put in place.
Powell also said the Fed's next step depends on whether prices go up a lot or if many people lose their jobs.
He said they will wait to see what happens. Then, they will decide if they should lower interest rates or keep them the same.
Krishna Guha, an expert, said the Fed will likely cut interest rates later. He said they think the economy is strong, so they probably won't cut rates in June. Many experts now think the Fed might wait until September to cut rates.
In April, Trump said he would put taxes on goods from about 60 countries. But he stopped most of these taxes for 90 days, except for goods from China. The government put a 145% tax on things from China. This weekend, people from both countries will have important talks in Switzerland. This is the first time they will talk like this since Trump started the trade problem.
The main bank is being careful. This could cause more problems between the bank and the government. On Sunday, the President asked the bank again on TV to make rates lower. The President stopped saying he would try to fire the bank's leader, but he might think about it again if the economy has problems soon.
When people asked if Trump's ideas for lower interest rates changed the Fed's work, Powell said, "It doesn't change how we do our job. We will only look at information about the economy, the future, and the possible problems."
If the central bank lowers interest rates, it could make loans for houses, cars, and credit cards cheaper, but we are not sure this will happen.
A big problem for the Fed is how import taxes will change prices. Most experts think these taxes will make prices higher, but they don't know how much or for how long. Usually, these taxes make prices go up one time, but not keep going up.
Right now, the U.S. economy is doing well. Prices are not rising as quickly as they did in 2022. People are buying things, maybe cars before new taxes. Companies are still hiring, and few people are out of work.
But there are signs that prices will go up more in the next few months.
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