May 9th, 2025
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The US central bank did not change its main interest rate on Wednesday. President Trump wanted them to make it lower, but they did not. They said that it is now more possible to have both more people without jobs and prices going up. This is a strange situation and makes it difficult for the bank.
The central bank kept its interest rate the same for the third meeting in a row. Before that, they lowered it three times at the end of last year. Many people still think the bank will lower rates this year. But, new taxes from Trump have made the U.S. economy and the bank's plans very unclear.
At a meeting with reporters, the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, said that the new taxes have made people and companies feel less hopeful. But he said the taxes have not really hurt the economy yet. Powell also said that right now, it's hard to know how the Fed should respond to these taxes because things are not clear.
Powell said that if the big price increases that were announced continue, they will probably cause prices to go up, the economy to grow more slowly, and more people to lose their jobs. He also said the effects might be short or last for a longer time.
It is not common for the Fed to worry about high prices and more people losing their jobs at the same time.
When many people lose their jobs and prices rise quickly, it is called 'stagflation.' This is a big problem for the economy and worries the people who control the money. It is difficult for them to solve both problems at once. This happened for a long time in the 1970s.
However, most economists think that Trump's import taxes could be bad for the economy. These taxes might make prices go up and also cause companies to fire workers because their costs increase.
The main goals of the Fed are to keep prices steady and help as many people as possible have jobs. Usually, if prices go up quickly, the Fed makes borrowing money more expensive to slow down spending. If people lose their jobs, the Fed makes borrowing cheaper to help people spend more and help the economy grow.
At the start of the year, experts thought the central bank would lower interest rates a few times because prices were not rising as fast. Some also think they should lower rates because the economy might grow more slowly and more people could lose their jobs. But the head of the central bank said that because the economy is doing well now, they do not need to do anything.
A few months ago, many experts thought the economy would get better slowly. They thought prices would go down to about 2%. They also thought many people would still have jobs and the economy would grow well.
But on Wednesday, Powell said that probably would not happen.
Powell said, 'If the taxes are put in place, we won't reach our goals. For about a year, we would not reach our goals, if that happens with the taxes.'
Powell also said what the Fed does next depends on whether prices go up a lot or if many people lose their jobs.
We don't know what will happen yet. We might lower interest rates or keep them the same. We need to wait and see before we decide.
Krishna Guha, an expert, said the Fed will likely cut interest rates later because they think the economy is strong. He said the Fed sees both good and bad things that could happen, and they think the economy is doing well. This means they probably won't cut rates in June. Many experts think the Fed might wait until September to cut rates.
In April, Trump said he would put taxes on goods from many countries, but he stopped most of them for 90 days. But goods from China still have a very high tax of 145%. This weekend in Switzerland, officials from the two countries will have their first important talks since Trump started problems with trade.
The main bank is being careful. This might cause more problems between the bank and the Trump government. Last Sunday, Trump said on TV again that the bank should lower interest rates. Trump stopped saying he would try to fire Powell, but he might think about it again if the economy has problems soon.
At the press conference, someone asked if President Trump's requests for lower interest rates changed what the Fed does. Mr. Powell answered, "No, it doesn't change how we do our work. We always look only at information about the economy, what we expect to happen in the future, and the possible problems. That's all."
If the Fed lowers interest rates, it could make it cheaper to borrow money for things like houses, cars, and credit cards, but we cannot be sure.
A big problem for the Fed is how taxes on imported goods will affect prices. Most experts and people at the Fed think these taxes will make prices higher, but they are not sure how much or for how long. Taxes on imported goods usually cause prices to go up just once, but not necessarily for a long time.
Right now, the U.S. economy is doing well. Prices are not rising as quickly as they were in 2022. People are buying things, and companies are still hiring new employees. This means that not many people are unemployed.
But there are signs that prices will go up more in the next few months.
May 9th, 2025
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