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2026年的選舉可能會顯示,大型賭博是否會改變選戰和結果。

2026年的選舉可能會顯示,大型賭博是否會改變選戰和結果。

A1🇺🇸 English🇹🇼 中文

September 8th, 2026

2026年的選舉可能會顯示,大型賭博是否會改變選戰和結果。

A1
Please note: This article has been simplified for language learning purposes. Some context and nuance from the original text may have been modified or removed.

🇹🇼 中文

美國選舉預測市場交易成長

Prediction-market trading on U.S. elections is growing fast.

2026中期選舉之前

This is before the 2026 midterms.

各州試圖禁止這些平台

States try to ban these platforms.

他們這些平台沒有執照賭博

They say the platforms are unlicensed gambling.

選務人員擔心

Election administrators worry.

他們大量下注傷害公眾民主信任

They say heavy betting can hurt public trust in democracy.

傑瑞德·德馬里尼斯馬里蘭州選務人員

Jared DeMarinis is Maryland's election administrator.

一個令人擔憂趨勢」。

He called it "a troubling trend."

全國官員必須處理這件

He says officials across the country must deal with it.

PolymarketKalshi平台人們買賣合約

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let people buy and sell contracts.

這些合約價格199美分之間

The contracts cost between 1 and 99 cents.

人們市長美國參議院選舉下注

People bet on races from mayor to U.S. Senate.

公司人員不是賭博

Company officials say this is not gambling.

他們買賣股票

They say it is like trading stocks.

人們保護自己避免選舉結果影響

People use it to protect against election results.

他們聯邦法律內線交易規則

They say federal law has insider-trading rules.

他們指出研究

They point to research.

研究顯示他們機率符合真實結果

The research shows their odds match real results.

市場今年問題

But the markets had problems this year.

他們喜歡一個威斯康辛州州長初選失敗候選人

They liked a losing candidate in Wisconsin's governor primary.

洛杉磯網紅使用市場賠率

In Los Angeles, influencers used market odds.

他們錯誤官員作弊

They falsely said officials cheated.

法院現在決定能不能禁止這些市場

Courts now decide if states can ban these markets.

使用賭博法律

States use gambling laws.

判決可能不會選舉出來

Rulings may not come before the election.

可能數十億美元交易

Billions of dollars may trade.

人們哪個政黨控制國會

People ask which party will control Congress.

官員計畫公共教育活動

Officials plan public education campaigns.

他們市場賠率不是民調

They will say market odds are not polls.

它們不是票數

They are not vote counts.

有些預測市場下注加入工作人員宣誓

Some counties add prediction-market betting to worker oaths.

分析師警告黨派支持者

Analysts warn about rich partisans.

他們可以提高賠率改變選民想法

They could raise odds to change voters' minds.

他們可以幫助候選人拿到

They could help candidates get money.

平台官員交易者很快修正賠率

Platform officials say traders fix bad odds fast.

September 8th, 2026

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