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2026年的选举可能会显示,大的赌注是否会改变比赛和结果。

2026年的选举可能会显示,大的赌注是否会改变比赛和结果。

A1🇺🇸 English🇨🇳 中文

September 8th, 2026

2026年的选举可能会显示,大的赌注是否会改变比赛和结果。

A1
Please note: This article has been simplified for language learning purposes. Some context and nuance from the original text may have been modified or removed.

🇨🇳 中文

美国选举预测市场交易增长

Prediction-market trading on U.S. elections is growing fast.

2026中期选举之前

This is before the 2026 midterms.

各州试图禁止这些平台

States try to ban these platforms.

他们这些平台执照赌博

They say the platforms are unlicensed gambling.

选举管理员担心

Election administrators worry.

他们大量下注伤害公众民主信任

They say heavy betting can hurt public trust in democracy.

贾里德·德马里尼斯马里兰州选举管理员

Jared DeMarinis is Maryland's election administrator.

一个令人不安趋势”。

He called it "a troubling trend."

全国官员必须处理这个问题

He says officials across the country must deal with it.

PolymarketKalshi这样平台人们买卖合约

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let people buy and sell contracts.

这些合约价格1美分99美分之间

The contracts cost between 1 and 99 cents.

人们市长美国参议院竞选

People bet on races from mayor to U.S. Senate.

公司官员不是赌博

Company officials say this is not gambling.

他们买卖股票

They say it is like trading stocks.

人们防止选举结果带来损失

People use it to protect against election results.

他们联邦法律内幕交易规则

They say federal law has insider-trading rules.

他们提到研究

They point to research.

研究显示他们赔率真实结果一样

The research shows their odds match real results.

但是市场今年问题

But the markets had problems this year.

他们喜欢威斯康星州州长初选一个输了候选人

They liked a losing candidate in Wisconsin's governor primary.

洛杉矶影响力市场赔率

In Los Angeles, influencers used market odds.

他们错误官员作弊

They falsely said officials cheated.

法院现在决定能不能禁止这些市场

Courts now decide if states can ban these markets.

使用赌博法律

States use gambling laws.

裁决可能不会选举出来

Rulings may not come before the election.

数十亿美元可能交易

Billions of dollars may trade.

人们哪个控制国会

People ask which party will control Congress.

官员计划公共教育活动

Officials plan public education campaigns.

他们市场赔率不是民调

They will say market odds are not polls.

它们不是计票

They are not vote counts.

一些预测市场下注加入工人誓言

Some counties add prediction-market betting to worker oaths.

分析家警告有钱党派成员

Analysts warn about rich partisans.

他们可以提高赔率改变选民想法

They could raise odds to change voters' minds.

他们可以帮助候选人得到

They could help candidates get money.

平台官员交易者很快修好赔率

Platform officials say traders fix bad odds fast.

September 8th, 2026

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