June 15th, 2025
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June witnessed a marked resurgence in consumer sentiment, the first in half a year, suggesting a tentatively more sanguine perspective on the economic horizon, buoyed by persistent inflation stability and the Trump administration's brokering of a provisional détente with China; this according to the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which registered a substantial 16% upswing from 52.2 to 60.5, albeit remaining 20% below the December 2024 benchmark, the ascendance attributable, in large measure, to President Trump's deferral of tariff impositions on approximately 60 nations and the aforementioned interim trade accord with China, which, to some degree, attenuated the economic anxieties precipitated by the protracted trade imbroglio, notwithstanding the fact that extant U.S. tariffs, while comparatively elevated vis-à-vis historical norms, are projected to exert a more pronounced economic drag in the ensuing months; furthermore, consumer sentiment continues to be characterised by a discernible partisan polarisation, with Republicans exhibiting demonstrably greater confidence in the Trump administration's economic stewardship than their Democratic counterparts, although the reporting month saw a generalised uplift in sentiment across the political spectrum, encompassing partisans from both major parties and independents, with the diminution in consumers' inflation expectations likely to be received favourably by the Federal Reserve in their forthcoming monetary policy deliberations.
June 15th, 2025
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