June 15th, 2025
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June witnessed a resurgent upswing in consumer confidence, the first in half a year, predicated on a nascently optimistic macroeconomic outlook engendered by stabilising inflationary pressures and the Trump administration's tentative rapprochement with China, according to the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index which, despite registering a substantial 16% increase from 52.2 to 60.5, remains a fifth lower than the high-water mark of December 2024; this augmentation is attributable, in part, to President Trump's deferral of tariff implementation across approximately sixty nations, and the ephemeral cessation of hostilities in the Sino-American trade imbroglio, attenuating, albeit superficially, recessionary anxieties precipitated by the protracted trade war, though these U.S. levies remain, in absolute terms, historically elevated, portending potentially deleterious downstream economic ramifications in subsequent fiscal quarters, with consumer sentiment still bifurcated along partisan lines, Republicans evincing a markedly more sanguine perception of the Trumpian economic dispensation than their Democratic counterparts, albeit with a broadly based, albeit modest, pan-ideological resurgence in sentiment manifest amongst partisans and independents alike, whilst the contraction in consumer inflation expectations will likely be greeted favourably by the Federal Reserve during their forthcoming monetary policy deliberations.
June 15th, 2025
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