June 15th, 2025
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June witnessed a marked resurgence in consumer sentiment, the first in half a year, predicated on a perceived stabilisation of inflationary pressures and the Trump administration's tentative rapprochement with China on trade; a preliminary analysis of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index revealed a 16% upswing, from 52.2 to 60.5, albeit remaining a substantial 20% below the December 2024 benchmark, a recrudescence largely attributable to President Trump's deferred imposition of tariffs on approximately sixty nations and the provisional cessation of Sino-American trade hostilities, thereby alleviating, to a degree, the pervasive economic anxieties engendered by the protracted commercial imbroglio; notwithstanding these propitious indicators, elevated U.S. duties persist relative to historical norms, portending a potentially more deleterious macroeconomic impact in subsequent fiscal cycles; furthermore, consumer sentiment remains intrinsically polarised along partisan lines, with Republicans evincing a demonstrably greater degree of confidence in the Trumpian economic paradigm than their Democratic counterparts, although the month under review evinced a generalised uplift across the political spectrum, encompassing adherents of both major parties and independent voters; finally, the observed attenuation of consumers' inflation expectations is likely to be construed favourably by the Federal Reserve in its forthcoming monetary policy deliberations.
June 15th, 2025
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