May 2nd, 2025
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China's economy grew by 5.4% from January to March this year, the government announced on Wednesday. This growth was helped by strong exports before the United States, led by President Donald Trump, quickly raised taxes on goods from China.
Because of the trade war, experts think that China's economy will slow down a lot soon, as high taxes on goods from the U.S. begin. China has put high taxes on American goods in return, but also says it will keep its markets open for trade and investment.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is visiting several Asian countries this week to support free trade and show China as a country that offers "stability and certainty" when times are difficult.
While Xi visited Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, the U.S. announced that a senior official, Sean O'Neill, would travel to Vietnam's capital, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City this week. He would also visit Siem Reap in Cambodia and Tokyo.
China is also showing its interest in trading with countries other than the United States at different trade fairs. This shows its large market and strong position as a major manufacturer.
Because of exports, China's economy grew by 5% in 2024, and the government aims for around 5% growth this year too.
Sheng Laiyun from the National Bureau of Statistics said that the new taxes will cause some problems for China's economy in the short term, but they won't stop its growth in the long run. He also said that China now sends less of its goods to the US than it did five years ago.
Sheng said, "China's economy is strong and flexible, and can grow a lot. We are sure we can deal with problems from outside and reach our development goals."
From January to March, the economy grew by 1.2% compared to the previous three months. This was slower than the 1.6% growth at the end of 2024.
Chinese exports went up by more than 12% in March compared to the year before, and by almost 6% in US dollars in the first three months of the year. This happened because companies hurried to send their goods before new taxes from President Trump were put in place. This also helped factories stay busy in the last few months.
A lot of this happened early on, helped by increased activity before US tariffs went up. Companies in the US also bought a lot of goods because importers wanted to be ready, according to Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
Factory production went up by 6.5% compared to last year in the last three months. This was mainly because the production of equipment increased by almost 11%.
The biggest growth was in modern technologies, like making electric and hybrid cars, which went up by 45.4% compared to the year before. Making 3D printers increased by almost 45%, and industrial robots increased by 26%.
Although the Chinese economy has grown quite fast compared to other countries, it has found it difficult to become strong again since the COVID-19 pandemic. Problems in the housing market have caused more people to be unemployed, making families careful about spending money.
Prices for things people buy went down a little (0.1%) in the first three months of the year. This suggests that people are not buying as much as businesses are making in many areas. Also, people were not putting much money into property; it went down by almost 10% compared to the year before. This happened even though the government tried to get banks to lend more money for buying houses.
The tariffs crisis is a big problem for China right now. China is trying to encourage businesses to invest and hire more people, and also wants Chinese people to spend more money.
Economists from both private companies and the government have been careful about what to expect, because Trump has often changed his mind about the details of his trade war.
It's very hard to know how the taxes the U.S. and China put on each other will change, because of what has happened in the last two weeks, according to a report by Tao Wang and other economists from UBS.
The International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank still expect the economy to grow by about 4.6% this year.
When Trump became president, he first increased taxes on goods from China by 10%. Later, he raised them to 20%. Now, China has to pay 145% taxes on most of the things it sells to the United States.
UBS thinks that if the taxes on goods stay about the same, China will sell two-thirds fewer goods to the US in the next few months. They also believe that the total value of China's sales to other countries could drop by 10%. Because of this, they have lowered their guess for how much the economy will grow this year from 4% to 3.4%. They also think growth will be slower, at 3%, in 2026.
Over the past seven months, China has worked harder to encourage people to spend more and businesses to invest. They have increased support for trading in old cars and appliances for new ones, and they have given more money for housing and other industries that need financial help.
May 2nd, 2025
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