May 2nd, 2025
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China's economy grew by 5.4% in the first three months of the year, helped by strong exports before the US increased taxes on Chinese goods.
Experts predict that China's economy will slow down a lot soon because of the trade conflict.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is visiting some other Asian countries this week. He wants to support free trade and show that China can be a source of "stability and certainty" when things are uncertain.
While Xi visited Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, the U.S. announced that a senior official, Sean O'Neill, would travel to Vietnam, Cambodia, and Tokyo this week.
China is also showing its interest in trade with countries other than the United States at different trade events. These events demonstrate China's large market and its strength as a major manufacturer.
Exports helped China's economy grow by 5% in 2024, which is also the government's goal for this year.
Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the new taxes will cause some problems for China's economy in the short term, but they will not stop its growth in the long term. He also said that China now sells less to the US than it did five years ago.
China's economy is strong and can handle difficulties. We believe we can deal with problems from outside the country and reach our goals," Sheng said.
From January to March, the economy grew by 1.2%. This was slower than the 1.6% growth seen in the last three months of 2024.
Chinese exports increased by over 12% in March compared to the previous year, and by nearly 6% in US dollars during the first three months. This happened because companies wanted to avoid President Trump's taxes on goods. This increase in exports has helped manufacturing production stay strong in recent months.
Much of this happened early, driven by quick action before US tariffs increased and companies in America bought many goods as importers rushed to prepare, according to Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
In the last three months, industrial production increased by 6.5% compared to the same time last year. This was mainly because equipment manufacturing grew by almost 11%.
Growth was strongest in new technologies, like making electric and hybrid cars, which increased by 45.4% compared to the previous year. Production of 3D printers grew by almost 45%, and industrial robots increased by 26%.
Although the Chinese economy has grown quite quickly compared to other countries, it has found it hard to become strong again since the COVID-19 pandemic. This is because problems in the housing market have increased joblessness, making families careful about how they spend their money.
Prices for goods and services went down by 0.1% in the first three months of the year. This shows that many businesses are making more than people want to buy. Also, money spent on property stayed low, falling by almost 10% compared to last year. This happened even though the government tried to help people get more loans to buy houses.
The problem with tariffs is coming soon, which will seriously hurt Beijing's efforts to make companies invest and hire more people, and to encourage Chinese shoppers to spend more money.
Economists in both private and public organizations have remained careful, because Trump has often changed his opinion about the details of his trade war.
Because of what has happened in the last two weeks, it is very hard to know how the taxes on goods between the U.S. and China will change, according to Tao Wang and other economists from UBS in a report.
The International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank still think the economy will grow by about 4.6% this year. This is a more positive prediction.
When Trump became president, he first increased the taxes on goods from China by 10%. Later, he increased them to 20%. Now, China has to pay 145% taxes on most of the goods it sends to the United States.
UBS believes that if the tariffs stay mostly the same, China's sales to the US could go down by two-thirds in the next few months. They also think China's total sales around the world could go down by 10% in value. UBS lowered its guess for how much the economy will grow this year from 4% to 3.4%. They expect growth to slow down to 3% in 2026.
Over the last seven months, China has tried harder to get people to spend more money and businesses to invest more. They have given more money to people who trade in old cars and appliances for new ones, and they have also put more money into housing and industries that need financial help.
May 2nd, 2025
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